Further out is even more uncertain given President Trump is due to announce Powell's successor at any time and, as usual, is likely to favour loyalty over experience and expertise.
It's not clear how the Treasury market would deal with such a nakedly political appointee to the most powerful central bank position in the world, but it's unlikely to bode well for the long end of the curve.
Central banks in Canada, Switzerland and Australia also meet this week and all are poised to hold steady. The Swiss National Bank might like to ease again to offset the strength of its franc, but is already at 0% and reluctant to go negative.
A run of hot economic data has led markets to abandon any hope of another easing from the Reserve Bank of Australia and even price in a rate hike for late 2026.
All this has made for a cautious start on markets, with Wall Street futures up a fraction and European futures down as much. Asian shares are mostly in the green, led by a 1% gain for China after it reported a 5.9% rise in exports for November, topping forecasts and continuing to defy the drag from U.S. tariffs.
The dollar is broadly softer, while Treasuries are hushed for the Fed countdown. Note JOLTS data are out tomorrow and could make more of a splash than usual given the payrolls report is now not due until December 16.
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