Sanitation

Morning Bid Europe

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets

By Wayne Cole, Chief Correspondent, Treasury

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A new week and we're back to Strait watching, opens new tab. That's the Strait of Hormuz and everyone's a shipping expert these days. So President Trump surprised this morning by posting the launch of Project Freedom to help the around 900 ships caught inside the Strait exit past the Iranians.

He was short on ‌detail but U.S. Central Command helpfully issued a brief media release saying it will support merchant vessels seeking to freely transit through the essential international trade corridor.

Today's Market News

Military intervention or convoy system?

Ships and boats in the Strait of Hormuz, Musandam, Oman, May 1, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo

Notably CentCom says this will include guided-missile destroyers, over 100 land- and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 service members, suggesting some sort of military intervention in the Strait to get the ships out.

Perhaps a convoy system, though it's not clear the Navy has enough ships, or the right kind of vessels, for such an operation.

It would also be very difficult, not to mention ⁠dangerous, to run a convoy system through such a narrow waterway with Iranian forces holding the entire northern shore of the Gulf. According to Trump, the operation is due to start today, and so far markets are reserving judgement.

Indeed, an Axios report said the operation would not necessarily involve Navy ships escorting private vessels. It was also unclear whether ship owners and crews would dare sail the strait given reports of two ships being attacked since Sunday. Looking at the various ship tracking web sites, there's no sign of vessels lining up to try their luck.

The latest data show on 2 May, 12 ships crossed the strait — five inbound and seven outbound — compared to a daily average of 138 before the conflict.

Thus, after falling more than 2% initially, Brent has come back to almost steady at $108 a barrel, with U.S. crude just short of $102. European and U.S. stock futures are ‌a whisker ⁠firmer, and the dollar little moved.

Graphics are produced by Reuters

Earnings and data

Markets are braced for more than 100 earnings reports this week. Companies reporting include Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O), opens new tab, Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI.O), opens new tab, Palantir , Walt Disney (DIS.N), opens new tab and McDonald's (MCD.N), opens new tab. AMD will have to sound bullish to justify the 80% rise in its share price over recent weeks.

For data, U.S. trade figures, ISM services, JOLTS, jobless claims and ADP employment all lead up to the payrolls report on Friday. Median forecasts are 4.3% and a rise of 60,000, though seasonal adjustment ⁠problems mean estimates go from -15,000 all the way up to +135,000.

A very weak report would be needed to revive the chance of a Fed rate cut this year, given the three dissents on the FOMC against an easing bias last week. The influential NY Fed chief John Williams will have a chance to lay out his ⁠thinking later today. Several ECB and BoC officials will also speak on Monday.

Australia's central bank meets on Tuesday and is considered likely (around 80%) to raise cash rates by 25 bps to 4.35%, the third straight hike.

Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:

Participation by ECB President Christine Lagarde and ECB board member Piero Cipollone in Eurogroup meeting in Brussels
Presentation of the ECB Annual Report 2025
Appearance by Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams gives a keynote address

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Weekend Briefing

From Reuters Daily Briefing

By Robert MacMillan, Reuters.com Weekend Editor

Welcome to the Weekend Briefing, where we’re wondering what could happen if the U.S. standoff with Iran should drag on indefinitely. Donald Trump is withdrawing U.S. troops from Germany. Turkmenistan is slowly opening to the outside world. If you’re booked on a Spirit Airlines flight, you’re not flying. If you can fly, follow City Memo to San Diego.

White House says the Iran war is ‘terminated’

REUTERS/Stringer

Deadlines & definitions: President Trump said a U.S. ceasefire stopped hostilities against Iran as he tried to bolster his argument that he does not need Congress’ permission to continue the conflict. Trump says the ceasefire gives him extra time under the 1973 War Powers Resolution to ask Congress to authorize his fight against Iran. Democrats say the law, which gives a president 60 days to fight before asking Congress for more time, contains no such provision.
Don’t pay to play: The U.S. said that any shipper who pays tolls to Iran for passage through the Strait of Hormuz will risk punitive sanctions. Trump rejected a proposal that an Iranian official said would open the strait and end the U.S. blockade on Iran while leaving nuclear talks for later. A multi-level yacht owned by Russian billionaire Alexey Mordashov crossed the strait with no objection from Iran or the U.S.

Russia says it’s staying in Mali

Resistance: The Kremlin said Russian forces would remain to help the military-led government battle al Qaeda-linked insurgents and a coalition of mostly Tuareg separatists. The size and scale of recent attacks there demonstrate an unprecedented ability to coordinate fighters from different goals against the government. Authorities are investigating soldiers whom they suspect of involvement in the attacks.
No protection: The U.S. said it is not funding any security units to police or guard mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo despite an earlier announcement from Kinshasa. Sudan banned some imports to stem its currency’s slide. The prime minister deemed biscuits and chocolates, plastic bags and containers, fruits and vegetables, rice, cement and toys as “luxuries and unnecessary.”

Get your kicks on Route 66 if you can afford it

Pump it up: Drivers were paying $6 a gallon for gas in California on Thursday, and candidates in the race for governor are debating whether the state should scrap its gasoline tax, the highest in the nation. Investors are running out of time to prepare for a proper oil-price shock.
Too much to go around: The Iran war has throttled natural-gas exports from the Gulf while a scarcity of export-plant and pipeline-transportation capacity in the U.S. is preventing American supply from reaching overseas markets.

U.S. will close its Gaza mission

A change of plan: Critics say the Civil-Military Coordination Centre failed in its mission to monitor the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and boost aid flow to Palestinians. The U.N. is helping Gaza repave its streets with war rubble. More than 100 pro-Palestinian activists carrying aid on boats bound for Gaza were taken to Crete after Israel seized their vessels in international waters near Greece.
And in Ukraine: Russia launched more than 400 drones at Ukraine during a daytime attack. Ukraine said it would carry out reforms in its army to address infantry shortages. Ukraine’s top general ordered a mandatory two-month time limit for front-line troops serving in forward positions after photos of emaciated soldiers on combat duty sparked a nationwide outcry.

Zuckerberg won’t rule out more job cuts at Meta

Capital spending: The Facebook founder said Meta has two major cost centers: computer infrastructure and “people-oriented things.” Take a guess on which one goes first. LinkedIn said its AI products that review CVs for companies will generate $450 million in sales this year.
The retail report: People-oriented things need food to survive. This is good for Chipotle, which reported a surprise quarterly-sales rise. Hershey topped its quarterly-sales estimates on the strength of its salty snacks. Starbucks posted strong revenue growth in the recent quarter, but costs rose faster. And Warren Buffett will attend his first Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting as a spectator.

Before I forget…

A U.S. government court filing raised questions about officials’ assertions that a gunman shot a Secret Service officer while trying to kill Trump at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner.
Kim Jong Un praised North Korean soldiers who killed themselves by self-detonation and other means rather than getting captured while fighting Ukrainian forces in Russia.
Pope Leo during his Africa tour said the Catholic church should prioritize questions of inequality and justice over sexual ethics.
It’s a desert out there: Saudi Arabia’s only official liquor store is running short of supplies, leading to some frayed nerves and altercations among foreigners.
Construction of the U.S. border wall is threatening endangered wolves, conservationists say.
A new study based on genome data from people who lived along the fortified Roman frontier in southern Germany contradicts the popular notion of a barbarian invasion sweeping through the western empire after its collapse.
A sellout crowd at an NHL playoff game between the Buffalo Sabres and Boston Bruins stepped in to help Cami Clune finish singing Canada’s national anthem after her microphone cut out.