Sanitation

Morning Bid Europe

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets

By Wayne Cole, Chief Correspondent, Treasury

Data refreshes every time you open this email. For more European market news, click here. Please send any feedback to morningbid@thomsonreuters.com.

So Democrats have taken the House and Senate in decisive fashion and markets in Asia have assumed this might not be good news for data centres, AI, crypto, healthcare and financials.

Wall Street futures led the losses, followed by tech ‌in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. European share futures are also down, maybe just in sympathy. The US dollar also suffered, while Treasuries rallied.

Today's Market News

Texan flip

Democratic US Senate candidate and Texas State Representative James Talarico reacts after his victory in the US midterm elections during an Election Night rally, in Austin, Texas, US, November 3, 2026. REUTERS/Mike Segar

The reasoning goes that Democrats will favour more regulation of AI and data centres, which had become politically toxic in many races in recent months. Analysts note actually passing regulation will be tough given President Trump has vowed to veto any bills and the Democrats do not have a veto-proof majority in ⁠the Senate.

However, Democrats have also taken a surprisingly large number of governorships, which will give them more power at the local level to put hurdles in the way of data centre builds, along with more rules on water and power requirements.

In particular, analysts were concerned the flip of the Texas governorship could really hit the massive expansion of data centres in the state.

When the Democratic majority takes over in early January, analysts assume they will launch a round of investigations into the Trump administration, the Iran war, tariffs, immigration policy and plenty of other policies. As JPMorgan carefully noted, there would be 'investigation risk' for business leaders tied to Trump donations including MegaCap Tech.

Spanner in growth engine

For bond markets, the early assumption was that the election result ‌might limit ⁠further government deficit spending, including on defence.

Democrats do favour restoring spending on health and food stamps, though again that could be vetoed by Trump. It just so happens, the Treasury refunding announcement is due later Wednesday and the market has been looking for less borrowing at the longer-end.

More hurdles to data centres would also throw a spanner in the major engine of U.S. economic growth right ⁠now, which might lessen inflationary pressure.

That helped lift Fed fund futures, which took about 6 basis points of hikes out from next year. Two-year yields were down almost 8 basis points at a two-month trough of 5.5458%.

In other markets, the drop in yields combined with the ⁠paring of rate hikes to push the dollar broadly lower, mainly to the benefit of the yen, euro and Swiss franc.

Oil prices are also down, perhaps on concerns Trump will renew strikes on Iran now the midterms are over and his ⁠domestic policy options will be limited by a Democratic House.

Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:

EU CPI and US ISM for October, US trade balance for September
Riksbank policy decision
ECB chief economist Philip Lane speaks

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Health Rounds

By Nancy Lapid, Health Science Editor

Hello Health Rounds readers! Today we present a trio of interesting studies that will be reported in detail at the American Heart Association Scientific Sessions in Chicago this weekend.

In breaking news stories: Americans vote with control of Congress at stake (follow our midterms coverage); US measles cases rise to 4,852, Pennsylvania measles cases rise to 1,433, and New York state reports first measles-linked child death in over 30 years. Also: US court says Idaho needn't allow abortions to protect women's health, and US to remove broad black box warning from three estrogen patch products.

Outside the US: Ebola survivors comfort sick children in isolation wards in Congo, where the outbreak has killed more than 5,000; thousands of pregnant women at risk in Yemeni city of Taiz; and Bangladesh death toll from dengue rises.

Industry Updates

CVS Health to break up into two companies.
Sanofi lifts 2026 growth targets, discontinues autoimmune disease drug program.
Teva to discontinue mid-stage neurodegenerative disorder study
US FDA approves Inovio treatment for rare throat disease, gives tentative to Dr. Reddy's for generic HIV prevention, and plans to review uniQure Huntington's gene therapy.
Novartis heart drug failure leaves doctors seeking evidence for genetic cholesterol target.
Bavarian Nordic gets four-year contract for mpox and smallpox vaccine from UK government.
Fresenius signs biosimilars agreement with WuXi Biologics.
EMA to review Lundbeck drug after serious side effects reported.
India orders Sun Pharma to halt eye-care drug production after quality lapses.
AstraZeneca CEO strikes bullish tone on pipeline.

How heat storms threaten pregnant women around the world

REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko

As heat waves intensify, a medical researcher realizes “no one is going to be safe” during pregnancy– including herself. Read more.

Study Rounds

GLP-1 drugs may outperform metformin for prediabetes

GLP-1 drugs may help prevent type 2 diabetes and lower the risk of heart attack and stroke in people diagnosed with prediabetes more effectively than the current standard medication, according to data to be reported at the AHA meeting.

Researchers reviewed medical records of more than 256,000 adults with prediabetes and obesity, about half of whom were taking the GLP-1 medications semaglutide, tirzepatide, liraglutide or dulaglutide. Semaglutide and liraglutide are Novo Nordisk diabetes drugs sold as Ozempic and Victoza, respectively. Eli Lilly's tirzepatide and dulaglutide are sold under the brand names Mounjaro and Trulicity for diabetes.

The other half were taking metformin, a gold-standard generic medication prescribed for prediabetes.

During the three-year study period, patients taking GLP-1s had a 50% higher chance of reversing high blood sugar to normal levels, a 31% lower risk of developing full-blown type 2 diabetes, and a 41% lower risk of death from any cause, compared to patients taking metformin.

GLP-1 medications were also associated with 15% fewer heart attacks, 20% fewer strokes, 25% fewer cases of heart failure and 8% fewer cases of the irregular heartbeat known as atrial fibrillation that can increase stroke risk fivefold, according to a brief summary, or abstract, of the study.

“This research may add to the case for considering GLP-1 medications earlier for certain patients, rather than waiting until they develop type 2 diabetes,” study leader Dr. Vinicius de Sousa Barzon Serra of the Mayo Clinic in Scottsdale, Arizona, said in a statement.

The benefits are likely related to weight loss, which is known to help prevent type 2 diabetes, Dr. Robert Eckel, a past president of the American Heart Association who wasn’t involved in the study, said in a statement.

Metformin is still a first-line treatment choice that's safe, inexpensive and has a long track record, Serra said.

Hormone replacement therapy before age 60 is safe for heart health

Modern hormone replacement regimens are not associated with an increased risk for heart attack, stroke, blood clots or death, according to long-term data from a large study.

The study involved 52,330 women ages 45–59 — half of whom were on hormone replacement therapy — who were followed for an average of 12 years.

The combined rate of heart attack, stroke or some other type of heart disease was 4.4% in the HRT group and 4.6% for the control group, who were closely matched in terms of age and other risk factors.

“Concerns that hormone replacement therapy may affect the heart is one of the most common reasons women decline hormone therapy to manage menopause symptoms, and why some healthcare professionals may hesitate to offer it,” study leader Ronen Arbel of Clalit Health Services in Tel Aviv said in a statement.

Fears that HRT is linked with cardiovascular harm arose mainly from studies with older therapy formulations that are no longer commonly used, with higher doses and in women who started on HRT long after menopause.

The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists now recommends starting HRT within 10 years of menopause onset and before age 60.

In other data from the study to be presented at the AHA meeting, death before age 80 occurred in 1.3% of women taking HRT and in 1.2% of non-users.

Blood clots occurred in 0.33% of women in both groups.

The results were similar across all HRT formulations regardless of whether the hormones were administered orally or via a patch or gel.

While observational studies cannot prove safety, these findings add to growing evidence that today's hormone therapy options may not increase the risk of heart disease, stroke or blood clots for healthy women who begin treatment around the time of menopause, Dr. Stacey Rosen of Northwell Health in New York, a past president of the AHA, said in a statement.

Cannabis linked with heart disease in large survey

Cannabis use was linked with cardiovascular disease in a survey of nearly half a million US adults, with higher risk of stroke a particular concern in the observational study.

Participants were interviewed by phone as part of the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Those who reported cannabis use also reported higher rates of cardiovascular disease compared to nonusers, researchers will report at the AHA meeting.

This was true even in adults ages 18 to 44, in never-smokers, and in people without diabetes, hypertension, or obesity, they also found.

Compared with non-users, those who used cannabis up to five days per month had 23% higher odds of also reporting a history of cardiovascular disease. Participants who reported using it for 16 to 30 days per month had 21% higher odds of reporting cardiovascular disease.

The strongest link between cannabis use and cardiovascular disease was with stroke, although the findings were somewhat confounding. Low-frequency cannabis use was associated with 40% higher odds of stroke, and heavy use with 25% higher odds of stroke.

"We expected that the chances of heart disease would gradually rise as people used cannabis more often, but that wasn’t the case," study leader Dr. Aabha Divya of Tulane University School of Medicine said in a statement.

While the study wasn't designed to prove cannabis use caused heart disease, this is the second observational study to suggest that cannabis exposure in nonsmokers may be a risk factor for developing heart disease, Robert Page of the University of Colorado Skaggs School of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences, who wasn’t involved in the study, said in a statement.

“Clinicians should be addressing cannabis use with their patients as they would tobacco use when considering the risk of cardiovascular disease," said Page, who chaired the writing group for the American Heart Association’s 2020 cannabis scientific statement.

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This newsletter was edited by Bill Berkrot.

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