By Ira Dugal, Editor Financial News, with global Reuters staff |
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A near 14% gain in India's benchmark index in the last six months has spurred a resurgence in initial public offerings and secondary market share sales. A sign of a strong market? Or a cue for a correction? That's the focus of this week's analysis. And India, like the rest of the world, is grappling with geopolitical uncertainty heightened by the Israel-Iran war. U.S. President Donald Trump has announced a ceasefire, easing market concerns. Follow our live coverage here. India remains vulnerable to Middle East tensions, however, given its heavy dependence on oil imports from the region. Scroll down for more on that. |
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Statues of people and a bull are seen next to the logo of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) in Mumbai, India, September 6, 2024. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas |
India's initial public offerings and secondary share sales have soared in the last two months, approaching the hefty volumes of last September when the main share indexes were at record highs. This flood of supply, analysts warn, could bring an unwelcome repeat of the market correction late last year, when upbeat sentiment in the markets and the economy triggered a surge in share sales that overwhelmed investor buying. The risks look a bit more ominous this time, given lacklustre fund inflows from both foreign and domestic investors, while Middle East tensions and geopolitical uncertainty cast a shadow over markets globally. Analysts also say Indian share valuations have once again begun to look stretched. Five new public issues are open in India this week and are expected to raise close to $1.75 billion, according to data available on stock exchange websites. The largest is financier HDB Financial Services, while others include a real estate developer, a civil engineering firm and a producer of industrial gases. Foreign-invested firms including ICICI Prudential Asset Management and LG Electronics' India arm have also said they will launch public offerings in the coming months if market conditions remain conducive. All in all, 47 companies are seeking regulatory approval for Indian IPOs. For market observers, it's a bit of deja vu. Last year, India outranked larger peers like the U.S. in the amount of funds raised from IPOs but activity slowed early this year as benchmark stock market indexes slid from their late September peaks. By the time the slide finally came to a halt in early April, the Nifty 50 had fallen 15%. Since then, the benchmark has rebounded about 14% and share sellers are once again coming out of the woodwork. Alongside the IPOs, last month there were $5.5 billion worth of secondary market sales by large shareholders of listed companies, according to LSEG data. Among the sellers were British American Tobacco, which raised $1.5 billion by offloading part of its long-held investment in India's ITC, and a co-founder of IndiGo Airline, who sold $1.36 billion worth of his shares. Prominent sellers this month include Reliance Industries, which raised $1.1 billion via a two-tranche sale of shares in Asian Paints, a company it invested in nearly 17 years ago. Those block trades piqued some renewed interest among foreign investors who had fled Indian markets during the latest downturn, although for the full year so far foreigners remain net sellers. |
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Some analysts fear, however, that the rush of share sales could pull funds away from the secondary markets and weigh down the broader rebound in Indian stock indexes since March. The equivalent of $7.2 billion of equity supply was absorbed into India's share markets through IPOs and secondary share sales last month, and $6 billion so far in June, Jefferies global head of equity strategy Christopher Wood said in his GREED & Fear report last week. "It is this supply which poses the main risk to the market," Wood said, highlighting that equity supply was running at around $7 billion a month prior to the correction that began late last September. At the same time, the market has less capacity to take up the supply, with the flow of investor funds into Indian equities below last year's peak. Foreign investors so far this year have sold a net $10 billion worth of shares, compared with a small net purchase of $124 million last year and a hefty $21 billion in purchases in 2023. Inflows into domestic mutual funds fell to a 13-month low in May. The rush by large shareholders to unload some of their holdings, moreover, signals that valuations have grown rich enough to tempt them to cash out, Jefferies said. The Nifty index now trades at 22.5-times 12-month forward earnings, the highest since the start of last year's correction. Is the surge in share sales signalling a top in the benchmark equity indexes? Write to me at ira.dugal@thomsonreuters.com. |
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Conflict in the Middle Ease: What it means for India |
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Oil prices spiked early in the week after news of U.S. air strikes on Iran, and while they eased again after Iran forewent any move to disrupt oil supplies and President Donald Trump announced an Iran-Israel ceasefire, the volatility highlighted the risks for economies such as India's that depend on imported oil. Global markets were closely watching whether Iran would block oil shipments through the critical Strait of Hormuz, although the doomsday scenarios may have been "more fear than reality", Reuters columnist Ron Bousso wrote in this piece. For more insights on the energy markets, sign up for Ron's newsletter here. India, the world's third-largest importer and consumer of oil, is particularly vulnerable since it imports nearly half of its crude oil from the Middle East. Read here to understand the risk that a wider Middle East conflict could pose to India, and how the government aims to ensure fuel supplies by tapping other sources, including Russia, whose share of India's oil imports has risen in recent years. A prolonged period of elevated oil prices could upend India's favourable macroeconomic balance, where low inflation has created leeway for steep interest rate cuts. The government's control over retail prices, though, could cushion any impact, economists said. A 10% rise in the crude oil price has the potential to push up inflation by around 1%, said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda. "However, in the case of the CPI, as prices have been fixed by the government through both cycles of rising and declining crude oil prices, the impact will be minimal," Sabnavis said. |
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Half a dozen big global equities traders, including Citadel Securities, IMC Trading, Millennium and Optiver, are ratcheting up their presence in India's booming derivatives markets, fuelling a hiring spree and pushing exchanges to improve technology. In April, India accounted for nearly 60% of the 7.3 billion equities derivatives contracts that traded hands globally, the Futures Industry Association says. For Western firms, the rush is too big to ignore. Get exclusive details on the India expansion plans of global trading firms in this report by Reuters journalists Jaspreet Kalra and Jayshree P. Upadhyay. |
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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi shake hands before posing for a photo during the G7 Leaders' Summit in Kananaskis, in Alberta, Canada, June 17, 2025. REUTERS/Amber Bracken |
The leaders of India and Canada held what they called productive talks in the first bilateral meeting since then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused New Delhi in 2023 of involvement in the killing of a Canadian Sikh separatist.
There was no sign of the tensions of the past two years when Prime Minister Mark Carney warmly welcomed his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi to a Group of Seven summit. Carney - who says he invited India, which is not a G7 member, due to its importance in global supply chains - told Modi it was "my great honor to have you here".
Both leaders issued statements saying the discussions had gone well.
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Additional reporting by Nidhi C Sai. This newsletter was edited by Edmund Klamann, Deputy Head, Asia Desk in Singapore. |
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